PREFALIM

Coordinating institution : CNRS

Project leader : Fabrice Etilé
Project duration : 60 months | September 1st 2024 → August 31th 2029

Grant : 1 244 210 €

 

Institutional partnerships : INRAE - Sorbonne Université

Associated institution : IRD

 

Two major levers must be mobilised to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050: a drastic reduction in greenhouse‑gas (GHG) emissions and the development of carbon‑storage capacity. In this context, the PREFALIM project will examine how changes in dietary behaviours and food preferences can reduce agricultural GHG emissions and enhance soil carbon storage.

To a large extent, the issue of food preferences remains a blind spot in assessments of climate‑mitigation options. Yet consumer preferences often act as a barrier to desirable changes in agricultural production and livestock systems. They also hinder the implementation of carbon‑pricing policies, which raise food prices and generate significant welfare losses for consumers, with strong redistributive effects that disproportionately affect low‑income households and may create politically destabilising outcomes for states. However, these welfare losses would be mitigated if consumer preferences shifted toward lower‑carbon diets.

PREFALIM will address this research challenge by characterising the links between food preferences and environmental concerns, and by identifying the capacity of public policies to align the former with the latter. The project will analyse the consequences of changes in food preferences on food demand and trade, on agricultural supply (crops and livestock), and on the resulting impacts on land use and the environment. Understanding the malleability of food preferences is also crucial for assessing the welfare and redistributive consequences of a transition toward decarbonised diets.

To achieve these scientific objectives, PREFALIM will overcome several conceptual and empirical barriers in the modelling of food demand, agricultural production, consumer welfare, and the biophysical modelling of environmental impacts. The analyses will combine a variety of quantitative methods and models, applied to data collected at different spatial and temporal scales (from French households observed in recent years to countries observed over past decades).

The ultimate goal is to analyse the role of food preferences in the carbon transition of the food system under different policy scenarios. Sensitivity analyses will also be conducted to account for variations in global economic and demographic structures, as well as environmental and socio‑economic risks.

At the national level, the results will inform cost‑effectiveness assessments of policy options targeting consumer preferences and/or increasing carbon prices, as recommended by the Quinet Report (2019) and the French National Low‑Carbon Strategy. At the international level, the findings will support the design of European and global public policies in the context of the EU Green Deal and international agreements negotiated under the UNFCCC (e.g., COP28 UAE “Declaration on sustainable agriculture, resilient food systems, and climate action”). The project will also provide tools to mitigate food‑related inequalities, which are expected to continue growing both within and between countries.

PREFALIM will therefore investigate how changes in dietary behaviours and food preferences can reduce agricultural GHG emissions and enhance soil carbon storage.

 

 PREFALIM Policy Briefs